Bernanke is Costing Me Money

[Grizzly]

Bernanke is costing me money and he's starting to piss me off.

Every idiot knows the market needed a half point move and a cut at the discount window as well. So what does my boy do? He cuts a quarter point and leaves the discount rate alone. Market dives 300 and my stop losses kick in. Then, he comes back just 12 hours later and announces a multinational liquidity agreement that sends the market back up 300. Too late for me; I'm already out. What, he didn't know yesterday that this deal was done? That piece took months to put together, not 12 hours. Rattle the market and cost investors billions...for what? He's just going to have to shave another quarter in January. The guy's a putz.

Why did the Dow end up a paltry 41 ahead on the day of such a major announcement? Because we've lost faith in this bonehead. He's killing us.

[Brucelee]

Bernanke is costing me money and he's starting to piss me off.

Every idiot knows the market needed a half point move and a cut at the discount window as well. So what does my boy do? He cuts a quarter point and leaves the discount rate alone. Market dives 300 and my stop losses kick in. Then, he comes back just 12 hours later and announces a multinational liquidity agreement that sends the market back up 300. Too late for me; I'm already out. What, he didn't know yesterday that this deal was done? That piece took months to put together, not 12 hours. Rattle the market and cost investors billions...for what? He's just going to have to shave another quarter in January. The guy's a putz.

Why did the Dow end up a paltry 41 ahead on the day of such a major announcement? Because we've lost faith in this bonehead. He's killing us.


I would not agree with your assessment of Bernake. I think he is moving MUCH faster than Al Greenspan would have moved. Bernake is trying to deal with a ton of variables, including a sinking dollar etc.

IMHO, he is doing fine. The market is trading in a narrow band due to much global uncertainty, oil prices, etc. and this kills short term traders etc.

These are good times to be very widely diversified and very long term.

Good luck on the market trades. :)

[blkboxster]

what are you talking about!!! the markets doing great.. But the CFC put option $10, For dec 21, and doubled :D

[cvhs18472]

I would not agree with your assessment of Bernake. I think he is moving MUCH faster than Al Greenspan would have moved. Bernake is trying to deal with a ton of variables, including a sinking dollar etc.

IMHO, he is doing fine. The market is trading in a narrow band due to much global uncertainty, oil prices, etc. and this kills short term traders etc.

These are good times to be very widely diversified and very long term.

Good luck on the market trades. :)


And how is this Boxster related? You either have to allow all topics or none. Because you have an interest or an opinon on the matter doesn't mean that you don't have to follow your own rules. That is of course ,assuming that you are not God I believe that any topic which interest Porsche people should be allowed. If it becomes so then you will not have to make all your arbitrary decesions and will then have more time for constructive things.

[RandallNeighbour]

cvhs, don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Grizzly, I bought 2 apple call options before he spoke yesterday and had to double down TWICE (if I can use the term that way) to cut my losses a bit.

Nothing like throwing more money at a problem to try to fix it!

I wish he'd moved to drop it a full half point as well. Recession's on the way, ain't it?

[Brucelee]

And how is this Boxster related? You either have to allow all topics or none. Because you have an interest or an opinon on the matter doesn't mean that you don't have to follow your own rules. That is of course ,assuming that you are not God I believe that any topic which interest Porsche people should be allowed. If it becomes so then you will not have to make all your arbitrary decesions and will then have more time for constructive things.


All my decisions are, by definiion, arbitrary.

I you don't like that, please move on.

Thank you.

BL

[Grizzly]

I wish he'd moved to drop it a full half point as well. Recession's on the way, ain't it?

I think if the jobs number stays strong we'll skirt a recession. If the jobs number fails, we'll want to be out of Apple and into Proctor and Gamble, Colgate and Coke, 'cause recession will be inbound.

Brucelee, I thought the lounge was for anything we wanted to discuss, not necessarily Porsche-related. Am I wrong?

[limoncello]

just my 2c

I think the Lounge is open for pretty much anything - our pets, what type of guns we have, etc. Lots of non porsche stuff is in there.

Anyway, somehow markets, and money, just seem inherently related to P-cars. They use a lot of it.

Lastly, I thought the quarter cut was ok, but the whole timing issue of the "cut one day, announce the loan scheme the next day" is really curious.

[Brucelee]

I think if the jobs number stays strong we'll skirt a recession. If the jobs number fails, we'll want to be out of Apple and into Proctor and Gamble, Colgate and Coke, 'cause recession will be inbound.

Brucelee, I thought the lounge was for anything we wanted to discuss, not necessarily Porsche-related. Am I wrong?


No, you are right. I simply check the lounge to make sure we all behave, but posts like this are totally fine.

:)

[Brucelee]

I think if the jobs number stays strong we'll skirt a recession. If the jobs number fails, we'll want to be out of Apple and into Proctor and Gamble, Colgate and Coke, 'cause recession will be inbound.

Brucelee, I thought the lounge was for anything we wanted to discuss, not necessarily Porsche-related. Am I wrong?


I love Apple's prospects long term as a company but the stock seems to have been up too much for my investment taste.

They are fun to watch though.
:)

[YellowJacket]

I don't see why anyone expected more than 25 bps. Nor can I see why anyone can blame Bernanke solely -- out of all the members of the FOMC, only one voted against the 25 bp cut. Pretty strong consensus if you ask me.

The Fed does not answer to the stock market; it is the Fed's job to balance much more macro concerns such as employement, real economic growth, and inflation. And while the dollar is not explicitly one of those, a 50 bp cut would have sent the dollar even lower (not that I would have minded too much since I'm deep in internationals still...).

Given the delicate situation in the financial world right now, I don't think the FOMC is doing a bad job at all.

[merplastic]

I don't see why anyone expected more than 25 bps. Nor can I see why anyone can blame Bernanke solely -- out of all the members of the FOMC, only one voted against the 25 bp cut. Pretty strong consensus if you ask me.

The Fed does not answer to the stock market; it is the Fed's job to balance much more macro concerns such as employement, real economic growth, and inflation. And while the dollar is not explicitly one of those, a 50 bp cut would have sent the dollar even lower (not that I would have minded too much since I'm deep in internationals still...).

Given the delicate situation in the financial world right now, I don't think the FOMC is doing a bad job at all.


Yellow Jacket is right on IMHO 50 bps was the low probability outcome that most recent economic data like unemployment and retail sales and even homes sales don't really support. The more the government uses monetary policy to manage free markets, the more volatile the markets will be. And more important, only consumer behaviors are going to matter in the end.

[Grizzly]

Okay, I understand that the Fed doesn't answer to the market and that they saw a 25bps cut as the prudent move. I also understand that the market is but one blip on the Fed's radar. However, they had to have seen that the market was looking for fifty and wouldn't react positively to a quarter point move. Knowing that, and having news of the liquidity deal in their hip pocket, why wait? Are you telling me that they didn't anticipate the needless volitility that they ultimately caused? Can you see how different the market's reaction would have been had they announced the liquidity deal in the morning and the rate cut in the afternoon? Or perhaps better yet, had they combined both pieces of news together as one cohesive strategy. What was their timing strategy all about? What could possibly have been gained by waiting?

[YellowJacket]

Okay, I understand that the Fed doesn't answer to the market and that they saw a 25bps cut as the prudent move. I also understand that the market is but one blip on the Fed's radar. However, they had to have seen that the market was looking for fifty and wouldn't react positively to a quarter point move. Knowing that, and having news of the liquidity deal in their hip pocket, why wait? Are you telling me that they didn't anticipate the needless volitility that they ultimately caused? Can you see how different the market's reaction would have been had they announced the liquidity deal in the morning and the rate cut in the afternoon? Or perhaps better yet, had they combined both pieces of news together as one cohesive strategy. What was their timing strategy all about? What could possibly have been gained by waiting?

Yeah, I'm with you on the timing -- announcing them the same day would have reduced needless volatility. Although lately, every time anyone who is in any way involved in finance sneezes, the DJIA moves 100 points. Crazy stuff!

[Brucelee]

There is alot going on behind the scenes at ALL of the world's central banks. Not all are on board with injecting liquidity and even the ones that are have differences on how much, how, etc. etc.

It may be the deal that was announced has some wrinkles in it that made the timing an issue.

In any event, the volaility will be with us for a while. Such is life and I do feel for your loss. The market is a cruel maiden.

:)

[Brucelee]

Yeah, I'm with you on the timing -- announcing them the same day would have reduced needless volatility. Although lately, every time anyone who is in any way involved in finance sneezes, the DJIA moves 100 points. Crazy stuff!


PS- a change in the Dow of 100 points is less than a 1% variation. I think that is random movement territory, no? :)

[merplastic]

I agree that the timing could have been better but we are in a new world. The old world took hours and days to react to news, now it takes 60 seconds. The Fed will catch up and be more thoughtful with regards to the new world in the future; however, financial prudence can't be reduced to any single data point IMHO.

[YellowJacket]

PS- a change in the Dow of 100 points is less than a 1% variation. I think that is random movement territory, no? :)

I don't know if I'd go so far as to call it random, but insignificant? I'll give you that. Maybe I should have said 200. :)

[Brucelee]

Bernake is a student of the Depression. He will not let us sink if he can help it.

Better he than that MORON Greenspan (IMHO).

:)